Don’t know ’bout you, but I get more than a tad irritated when I read something like, “Since we knew the market was turning, we pounced, making our move ahead of the curve.” What a crocka crappola. I’ve had strong opinions in previous markets, big deal. I’ve been right, and I’ve been wrong, in both cases either a bit early or late. But those claiming to have known about past markets and subsequently bought, sold, or exchanged with precise timing? Gimme a break.
I’ve made some purchases which when looked upon in the light of 20/20 hindsight made me look like a freakin’ genius. Sure, I thought it was the right time, but pure luck was the reason my timing was so spot on. My timing has pretty much been 1-3 quarters off either way — and frankly, I’m more than fine with that. My track record? So happy you asked.
I switched to investment property from listing/selling homes in 1976. I wasn’t quite 25 at the time, which of course meant I knew everything. The first wave of the tsunami appreciation storm had already spread its magic elixir all over San Diego, yet I was clueless as to the strength or the ‘legs’ of that upward market movement. It lasted pretty much through 1979 — averaging around 2% appreciation monthly for almost four years. At least I had youth and inexperience as an excuse back then.
About six years later, which included literally over 300 hours of formal training and who knows how many hundreds of hours learning from some incredible mentors, not to mention million$ in ‘rubber hittin’ the road’ experience, I thought I saw the market showing signs of emerging from the early ’80′s recession around the end of 1984. I was right, but not in any strict sense. The lesson learned then was that signs a turnaround might be imminent doesn’t necessarily mean you’re gonna be doing the Happy Feet dance next week. It simply doesn’t work that way.
Real estate markets are like aircraft carriers, you may see the first 20 seconds of a 70?turn, but there’s no way to know if you’re actually seeing the beginning of a turn or not ’till a a change in direction becomes empirically obvious. And that takes time.
Take now for instance. We can all point to various ‘evidence’ of an impending real estate recovery, both anecdotal and empirical. But seriously, and I say this based upon my experience, this economic downturn has demonstrated its own unique personality. Yeah, that may be the understatement of the year so far, I get it. 
However, personality aside, human behavior combined with the unchangeable laws of economic physics, shows us that when the big boys begin competing with each other to buy bank owned properties in bulk, it might mean we really are seeing the carrier actually beginning a real turn.
When portfolio lenders begin competing with each other to make loans Fannie or Freddie won’t buy, and to investors to boot, it may be a sign a turn has been initiated.
Or not. I’m not sure, but I’ve been told it takes miles for an aircraft carrier to complete a major turn. It’s too soon to say for sure, but did I see a slight change of direction in that huge bow? We’ll hafta wait and see. It shouldn’t take all that long.
Call me at 619 889-7100 to get started on your own Purposeful Plan. If you’d like to know more about what that is, listen to the podcasts up top. Wanna write me? Click the Contact BawldGuy whats-it and I’ll get to you quickly. Have a good one.
Related posts:
- How Does The Real Estate Investor Know When It’s Time To Make The Next Move?
- Here We Come San Diego — Move It Or Lose It Local Real Estate Investors
- When It’s Darkest It’s Time To Move It — Talkin’ To YOU Real Estate Investors
- #1 Reason California Real Estate Investors Should Move Their Equities Outa Dodge
- How Can Real Estate Investors Make Money In A Local Down Market?
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