Comments on: How To Get Real Estate Flyin’ Off The Shelves Again — This Would Help Big Time http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time Real Estate Investing Through Purposeful Planning Sun, 20 May 2012 02:11:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: I don’t always agree with him, but I always appreciate what he’s saying….. at tvanderwell on SmartHippo.com http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3466 I don’t always agree with him, but I always appreciate what he’s saying….. at tvanderwell on SmartHippo.com Fri, 30 Jan 2009 19:37:29 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3466 [...] How To Get Real Estate Flyin’ Off The Shelves Again — This Would Help Big Time · BawldGuy Talking The last couple months or so I’ve been having some interesting, sometimes funny, sometimes very lively conversations with some pretty knowledgeable people. They come from all over the country. Both genders. Over 70, under 30, and everything in between. Two had experience with Fannie/Freddie — one with each, and both impressively high on the regional pecking order in their area. [...] [...] How To Get Real Estate Flyin’ Off The Shelves Again — This Would Help Big Time · BawldGuy Talking The last couple months or so I’ve been having some interesting, sometimes funny, sometimes very lively conversations with some pretty knowledgeable people. They come from all over the country. Both genders. Over 70, under 30, and everything in between. Two had experience with Fannie/Freddie — one with each, and both impressively high on the regional pecking order in their area. [...]

]]> By: Straight Talk About Mortgages and Real Estate : I don’t always agree with him, but I always appreciate what he’s saying….. http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3465 Straight Talk About Mortgages and Real Estate : I don’t always agree with him, but I always appreciate what he’s saying….. Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:14:47 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3465 [...] How To Get Real Estate Flyin’ Off The Shelves Again — This Would Help Big Time · BawldGuy Talking The last couple months or so I’ve been having some interesting, sometimes funny, sometimes very lively conversations with some pretty knowledgeable people. They come from all over the country. Both genders. Over 70, under 30, and everything in between. Two had experience with Fannie/Freddie — one with each, and both impressively high on the regional pecking order in their area. [...] [...] How To Get Real Estate Flyin’ Off The Shelves Again — This Would Help Big Time · BawldGuy Talking The last couple months or so I’ve been having some interesting, sometimes funny, sometimes very lively conversations with some pretty knowledgeable people. They come from all over the country. Both genders. Over 70, under 30, and everything in between. Two had experience with Fannie/Freddie — one with each, and both impressively high on the regional pecking order in their area. [...]

]]> By: BawldGuy http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3464 BawldGuy Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:28:01 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3464 Also, your point about predicting long term cap growth rates is well taken. It's why when asked by clients what they should expect, we always tell them two things. 1) Our crystal ball broke ages ago. 2) Even when we think it prudent to predict a very low appreciation rate (range) of say 3%+, we tell them only time will tell. RE: your 40,000 Dow comment. The SD version of that was how our median price would eventually reach a million bucks. Like you, I just shook my head in wonder. Also, your point about predicting long term cap growth rates is well taken. It’s why when asked by clients what they should expect, we always tell them two things. 1) Our crystal ball broke ages ago. 2) Even when we think it prudent to predict a very low appreciation rate (range) of say 3%+, we tell them only time will tell.

RE: your 40,000 Dow comment. The SD version of that was how our median price would eventually reach a million bucks. Like you, I just shook my head in wonder.

]]> By: BawldGuy http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3463 BawldGuy Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:23:02 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3463 I guarantee they have that data -- the problem is mining it. It's been made far more difficult since New Year's day, due to the severely restrictive new RESPA rules. If you want those facts now, you must write a sizable check. Again, the numbers of SD investors having gone elsewhere to invest isn't my point. It's the percentage of them I say is low. Your point about talking with non-CA brokers might indeed be true. I've heard many stories first hand from many of my clients who're now with me, but started with the 'local' guy. Problem was, the local guy was a house agent who could barely spell real estate investment on a good day. :) It's not the location of the expert pro, it's the fact they are indeed investment experts. I guarantee they have that data — the problem is mining it. It’s been made far more difficult since New Year’s day, due to the severely restrictive new RESPA rules. If you want those facts now, you must write a sizable check.

Again, the numbers of SD investors having gone elsewhere to invest isn’t my point. It’s the percentage of them I say is low.

Your point about talking with non-CA brokers might indeed be true. I’ve heard many stories first hand from many of my clients who’re now with me, but started with the ‘local’ guy. Problem was, the local guy was a house agent who could barely spell real estate investment on a good day. :)

It’s not the location of the expert pro, it’s the fact they are indeed investment experts.

]]> By: Another Investor http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3462 Another Investor Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:09:49 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3462 Yeah, and the Dow was going to 40,000 not so many years ago. Projecting compound growth rates over long periods of time leads to, um, interesting results. It's possible that lots of folks investing out of state are talking to out of state brokers and bypassing California brokers that sell out of state investments. If someone out there has the ability to assemble the data, I would really like to know if urban coastal Californians (i.e. the ones who really want to buy that 4-plex in Palo Alto if they could only afford it) are really investing out of state in large numbers. For example, could Clark County NV or Maricopa County AZ easily provide the number of parcels or properties owned by people or entities with San Diego County mailing addresses from their records? I'll bet a title company out there might have that data. Yeah, and the Dow was going to 40,000 not so many years ago. Projecting compound growth rates over long periods of time leads to, um, interesting results.

It’s possible that lots of folks investing out of state are talking to out of state brokers and bypassing California brokers that sell out of state investments. If someone out there has the ability to assemble the data, I would really like to know if urban coastal Californians (i.e. the ones who really want to buy that 4-plex in Palo Alto if they could only afford it) are really investing out of state in large numbers. For example, could Clark County NV or Maricopa County AZ easily provide the number of parcels or properties owned by people or entities with San Diego County mailing addresses from their records? I’ll bet a title company out there might have that data.

]]> By: BawldGuy http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3461 BawldGuy Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:59:26 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3461 You and I both -- it's all about estimates. I've not seen reliable hard data on % of local investors going outa state. This is why I use my local experience, wet my finger, and hazard a wide ranged guess. My point remains the same. The vast (read: huge) majority of SD income prop owners have stayed home. If anyone can show otherwise, I'm always willing to say I was wrong. Tell ya what though, bettin' San Diegans have been streamin' out of here is a losing wager. Most think property here is forever blessed -- regardless of recent events. You'd laugh out loud at some of the things they predict for the next 5-10 years here. You and I both — it’s all about estimates. I’ve not seen reliable hard data on % of local investors going outa state. This is why I use my local experience, wet my finger, and hazard a wide ranged guess.

My point remains the same. The vast (read: huge) majority of SD income prop owners have stayed home. If anyone can show otherwise, I’m always willing to say I was wrong. Tell ya what though, bettin’ San Diegans have been streamin’ out of here is a losing wager. Most think property here is forever blessed — regardless of recent events.

You’d laugh out loud at some of the things they predict for the next 5-10 years here.

]]> By: Another Investor http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3460 Another Investor Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:39:20 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3460 I'm really curious about where you get your estimates and how you draw your conclusions. The San Diego County Assessor's website states there are approximately 975,000 parcels in San Diego County. Not all of those parcels are houses, apartments, or commercial buildings, and some projects occupy more than one parcel. Some investors own more than one property. You could add all of the single family residences and condos with a different mailing address and without a homeowner's exemption to all of the properties with use codes corresponding to an improved multi-family, commercial or indutrial use and come out with an approximation of the number of improved investment properties. It would be laborious, but you could go through the ownership data and eliminate multiple properties to get the number of current investors in San Diego County properties. You could then repeat the process to the extent possible in Maricopa County (Arizona), Clark County (Nevada), and other major investment areas. Then select all the San Diego County mailing addresses, eliminating duplicate properties, to get the number of San Diego County investors. Is there an easier way to do this? Anyone up to the challenge? Or is the answer obvious from some other data? Of course, investment is not an "either or" proposition. Some folks are hedging their geographical bets, owning properties inside California and beyond the state line. And if your most recent post is accurate, a lot more folks will be moving or acquiring equity outside of California. I’m really curious about where you get your estimates and how you draw your conclusions.

The San Diego County Assessor’s website states there are approximately 975,000 parcels in San Diego County. Not all of those parcels are houses, apartments, or commercial buildings, and some projects occupy more than one parcel. Some investors own more than one property. You could add all of the single family residences and condos with a different mailing address and without a homeowner’s exemption to all of the properties with use codes corresponding to an improved multi-family, commercial or indutrial use and come out with an approximation of the number of improved investment properties. It would be laborious, but you could go through the ownership data and eliminate multiple properties to get the number of current investors in San Diego County properties.

You could then repeat the process to the extent possible in Maricopa County (Arizona), Clark County (Nevada), and other major investment areas. Then select all the San Diego County mailing addresses, eliminating duplicate properties, to get the number of San Diego County investors.

Is there an easier way to do this? Anyone up to the challenge? Or is the answer obvious from some other data?

Of course, investment is not an “either or” proposition. Some folks are hedging their geographical bets, owning properties inside California and beyond the state line. And if your most recent post is accurate, a lot more folks will be moving or acquiring equity outside of California.

]]> By: BawldGuy http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3459 BawldGuy Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:42:03 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3459 Using the power of deduction. Example: There are roughly 50-100,000 real estate investment property owners in San Diego county. I have deduced that FAR less than half of them have taken their equities out of SD county. Is my deduction flawed? Using the power of deduction. Example: There are roughly 50-100,000 real estate investment property owners in San Diego county. I have deduced that FAR less than half of them have taken their equities out of SD county.

Is my deduction flawed?

]]> By: Another Investor http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3458 Another Investor Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:30:50 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3458 OK, I will bite. Since our experience differs, what raw numbers convince you that the majority of investors are staying local? OK, I will bite. Since our experience differs, what raw numbers convince you that the majority of investors are staying local?

]]> By: BawldGuy http://bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3457 BawldGuy Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:14:10 +0000 http://www.bawldguy.com/how-to-get-real-estate-flyin-off-the-shelves-again-this-would-help-big-time/#comment-3457 Oh, and one more thing. My experience and the raw numbers say your take on investors staying local is incorrect. You may have impressive numbers of folks who've indeed invested far from home, but when they're viewed as a percentage of the whole, they're easily in the minority. Oh, and one more thing. My experience and the raw numbers say your take on investors staying local is incorrect. You may have impressive numbers of folks who’ve indeed invested far from home, but when they’re viewed as a percentage of the whole, they’re easily in the minority.

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