BawldGuy here: Both Max Max & I are both having computer issues. Thanks for your patience.
2-25-10
CURRENT BUY – 100% of stock allocation $$$
KEYLINE 7-25-09 BUY 50% allocation only (S&P @ 970)
SIGNAL 10-9-09 BUY balance of 50% (S&P @ 1071)
1-25-10 SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS ALL SUBSCRIBERS:
Establish stops on volatile stocks 12% below highest high last six months.
Use 25% stop for “Steady Eddie” stocks. Check each day to see if any close
below stop. If so, execute that exit the next day, at the open. These
instructions hold until we close above S&P 1160 (if we do).
THE BOTTOM LINE
I am writing this on a crippled compute and, I am told, it may be 5-8 trading days before I can get delivery of a new backup unit. Be that as it may, I will do my best in trying to put on paper (electronic, of course) the events of this week, hoping to give you at least a summary of what I see happening here.
First of all, it was encouraging that we were able to close several days above the S&P 1100 mark. But, a lot of that sigh of relief is gone with the events of today: (1) a “Health Summit” that turned out to be a setup farce for all involved. What a waste of time that was. But, it was on C-Span. That is some progress! And (2) the employment numbers this AM were really ugly, over 40K more than expected. Right away you heard the cries of “double-dip” everywhere. That meant, of course, that many expect the stock market will likely dip a second time, as the recovery may be beginning to fade. But, we will need more time to call that kind of event my S&P Keyline chart says. But, nonetheless, the Keyline chart is saying right now that we really do need to get above the S&P 1100 mark and stay there for awhile.
Another setup on the Keyline I am watching closely is the MOMENTUM SECTION green and black lines (green(fast sto) and black(slow sto). The green line has hit the 50 level while the black line is NOT holding above an 80 reading. It closed at 74 today. That is not a setup that reflects strength. What is needed in the next 4-6 days of trading is a move above the 50 level for the green line and for the black line to start up, once again. Frankly I don’t know if that will come. I will be watching closely and letting you know what develops.
Bonds have rallied substantially, of course, as the stock market slips lower due to selling. Yes, Virginia, all that money has to go somewhere and, as reflected by the bond price rise, it’s to the bond pits.. The Big Bond Guys are nervous. And maybe they should be. Bernanke says rates will stay low, as the economy is still fragile; jobs numbers are slipping; the European situation is far from truly solved; and theU.S. debt just keeps piling up. Hummmmm. Best to be a bit nervous, maybe.
But, not to get ahead of ourselves. So far, we remain nearly 40 points above the S&P cash index Super Chart Keyline. That is still a long way. But, as I said a moment ago, I say that with a bit of nervous energy. Need to keep a close watch.
The rest of the market is basically treading water, Crude Oil is fading after a third try to reach and cross above the Keyline at 86.06, Gold is forming what is called a “flag” formation, which is usually a very bullish one, Copper seems to have eased back from the tear it was on to higher prices 2-3 days ago, and the Dollar remains ABOVE its Keyline and doing so with authority. Obviously, the world’s other currencies are just not very attractive to investors as the stock and bond market actions evidence. But, I do expect the Dollar to hold above the Keyline and move somewhat higher over the next 3 weeks or so.
Well, don’t want to overtax this machine, so I will sign off for now. I can’t do charts yet — they draw pretty hard on the computer. So ,will hope that over the weekend I can get enough of them to put most or all in the Monday Weekly Keyline Report.
Again, sorry to have been AWOL most of the week, but working hard to correct the situation. As ever, do hope your trading day was a profitable one. Will see you tomorrow, Lord willin’ (the computer holds out) and the creek don’t rise.
NEED SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT?
SIX STORIES IMPACTING THE MARKET TODAY
1. Health care summit never really made it past the base camp at the bottom of the mountain. Too bad.
2. Weekly unemployment numbers gain a shock to investors. It says recovery is going very, very slow.
3. Greece delayed its bond offering, as EU applies heavy pressure to cut spending first. Bad news here.
4. Bond prices jump over ¾ of a point today, as stock sellers seek “safe haven” for $$$ from stock sales.
5. WTO says world trade dropped 12% in 2009. Are China and other exporters really growing????
6. EU officials say 2010 UK growth to be only .06%. not 0.9%. More EU bad news. Pile gets higher!!
MY TAKE: #1 was mostly show today, as I saw it. Now the finger-pointing starts –“They didn’t cooperate!” will be the cry. #5 says the huge reports of China growth must be padded. You don’t see that kind of trade drop without cutbacks somewhere, too! #3 could be the straw that does the trick to bring down Greece. Angry citizens are in the streets, even now. Will the EU let Greece fall? Tough decision! #2 A nearly 40K increase over even the most bearish predictions was just not expected.
Note: All closes at 4pm using continuous cash contract results
Disclaimer
** The top five sector stocks shown are stocks that are above their Super Chart Keyline and between $5 and $35 in price have been randomly selected from the stocks in the each sector. Their inclusion in the Report is not to be interpreted as a buy recommendation nor is the exclusion of others above their Super Chart Keyline to be interpreted as a sell recommendation. This data is given for informational and research purposes only, as we do not make buy or sell recommendations at any time under any circumstances.
?***Max Whitmore, “The Keyline Report”, and “MUNCHIN’ On the Number”report does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are mentioned in any way in its Reports. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes only. Max Whitmore, “The Keyline Report,” and “MUNCHIN’ On the Number” do not recommend particular securities to anyone, ever, under any circumstances. The statements made herein include information obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness in any manner whatsoever. You should not make any investment decisions of any sort based solely on what you read in the Keyline or MUNCHIN’ Reports. The statements made herein contain general information and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security of any description. Subscription to any of the Reports mentioned above is consent by the subscriber of full release of Max Whitmore and the Reports mentioned herein from any claims or actions of any description, legal or otherwise, against Max Whitmore or the Reports. All material herein is Copyright 2010 by Max Whitmore. All rights reserved.
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About BawldGuy
Was there a Health Care Summit on TV today? Even the cable shows got tired of the dog and pony show. Like you said, I’m waiting to watch the fun part — the mudslinging to come — and of course, the chaos that will ensue after reconciliation.
PHEWW! Thank goodness it is only computer problems and not your health! You had me worried, Max. We, like you, await the return of a good computer, with fingers crossed. The “Health Care Summit” was a farce and setup – a ploy to gain cover for ramrodding through the nasty take over of 1/6 of USA economy by government. I expect that to get pushed VERY HARD in the next few weeks by the Dems saying “It’s the Republicans fault; they don’t cooperate.”
Hey Josh — The play by play provided by some of the radio commentators was hilarious. The body language of some of them was telling.
As was the body language of the President and some others when the opposition were making quality points. I’m not sure they thought that would happen — they wanted to control the meeting, and did (time-wise), but couldn’t control the message.
Hey Max! Good to see you back up and running, and glad that a computer was your only problem. We look forward to hearing your comments! Maybe both parties would be better served trying to fix parts of the dog and not the whole thing. Sometimes things have to get worse before they get better, the question is how much? Thanks again for your time and thoughts! All the Best! hc
Could you comment on the volume? Thin trading is like thin ice.
The health care kabuki was amusing. How long before we get a committee to recommend more committees? For anyone looking for the bottom line we’ll get more health care by brining 45 million into a system and pay for it by paying doctors less than they get now.
Re: “Gold is forming what is called a “flag” formation, which is usually a very bullish one…” Huh? I thought flags were directionless. Interesting.
Max: Where are you? It seems that the “computer issues” explanation is “long in the tooth”.
Really Robert? Why don’t you tell all of us exactly what’s goin’ on?