1-5-10
So! The S&P held firm all day. No sell-off of any consequence all day. Could this be one of the few times that we “walk the 90’s?” This occurs when the green line (fast stochastic) in the MOMENTUM SECTION just continues to walk the very top of the chart while prices continue higher. Is this possible? Too soon to tell. But, the fact that we didn’t see any attempt today to sell down hard in here is very significant. However, we may need to wait until Friday to see if we hold.
Of course, I am referring to this coming Friday’s monthly employment numbers, as you know. Could that be why we are not seeing any weakness? Are investors believing that the numbers will show an actual gain in employment? Some talk that way. But, my sense of it is that, so far anyway, it is a wish and not a lot of good data to back it up. In WWII that was called “coming in on a wing and a prayer.” They even wrote a song with that title. Well, we will see. But, so far, investors are believing the hope.
And as far as the S&P goes, my Keyline chart (see below) shows we are staying just above the Headline, and I mean just.
You can see from the chart below that the Green line in the MOMENTUM SECTION is over 88, really up there! But, note also on the chart that we are approaching the top of the area just above the Keyline (light blue area) which I use to remind me that we are not out of the woods, even after we cross above the Keyline. In this area, we are still in the area where a reversal can occur. It doesn’t mean that we should not be buyers just that we need to really continue to be alert. If we pull above the area, it is an indication that this move is really very, very solid. So, I will be watching to see if it happens.
The Rest of the Story
The biggest news, as far as I am concerned, is that the bonds are making a real effort to climb back above the Keyline at 116 21/32. Granted, we still have almost ¾ of a point to go to do it, but the rally today is impressive. But, not to get ahead of ourselves. Above is still not here. Note the effect that this rally today had on the dollar. We actually closed a bit higher. Hummmmm. Gold held its own, however, so too early to call bonds out of the woods.
And Dr. Copper just keeps climbing. Don’t like the implications of that. We are significantly above the Keyline for Dr. Copper and that tells me inflations worries are still very real to most investors that understand what Dr. Copper is telling us. Oil is still below its Keyline, but continues an impressive climb of its own, mostly due to the dollar action of the last week or so. Inflation fears will not go away any time soon, it appears.
Here is just hoping that the bonds continue their attempt to get back above the Keyline. Would make investing life better for all of us. Maybe the employment numbers will tell us which way it all goes. Looks like 8:30am Friday morning will be a very important time.
Bottom Line
Well, that’s all for today. Bottom line is stocks held their own, very good action. All indices higher except Dow, but, especially, inflation indicator Dr. Copper continues to knock on the door louder and louder, not so good. Oil is near either a break above its Keyline at $84.76, or a backing off from this number. That will be strongly influenced by the Friday employment numbers, I suspect. Finally, the dollar is weaker, even though it held its ground and climbed a tiny bit today. Still well, below its Keyline. It seems due to possibly go lower for a few weeks.
Well, as ever, do hope your trading day was a profitable one. Will be back tomorrow with more, Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
Need Something To Talk About Tonight?
SIX MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE MARKET TODAY
1. Only Ford reported higher Dec. sales but down 15% for the yr. Chrysler down 36%! GM down 30%!
2. Shades of the future? Canada to issue a Euro bond to move away from dollar dependency. Oh my!
3. Analysts say S&P to break much higher. Hey, you guys! We knew that in October! We see 1220-40!
4. Pending home sales dropped by 16% in November, they said. But, is very “old” news. Little impact.
5. Macy’s to shut 5 of its big retail outlets across U.S. Is this the beginning of a retail downsizing? Humm.
6. Jim Zorn let go by Redskins. Not unexpected, but hard times for Redskins. Shanahan his replacement?
#1 continues to amaze us all. What a downsizing this industry has seen! #4 is old news to investors, so not much impact, but year end numbers could be better. We will see. #5 didn’t hit Columbus Macy stores, but one here is on the worry list I think. And #6 was due to leadership. Zorn has trouble with keeping the team focused. The discipline Madden had is what Zorn needs to make it big in the NFL. Hummmmm. Well, hope he finds it.
THE NUMBERS SECTION
DAILY CHANGES DAILY WEEKLY
Closes as of Mon. 1-4-10 CHANGE (cash) KEYLINE# ABV/BLW
DOW INDU. 10,572.02 -11.94 points 9,844.76 ABV +739.20
S&P 1,136.52 +3.53 points 1,059.90 ABV +73.09
30 YR BONDS 115 28/32 + 21/32 ticks 116 22/32 BLW – 26/32
NASDAQ 2,308.71 +.29 points 2,115.64 ABV +192.78
GOLD $1,119.50 +$0.20 $935.95 ABV +$183.35
OIL $81.93 +$0.39 $84.76 BLW -3.22
DOLLAR INDEX 77.64 +$.17 79.70 BLW -2.23
COPPER $3.4230 +$.0115 $2.6810 ABV +.7305
DOW DAILY PRICE RANGE 62.04 points (Pretty quiet folks!)
S&P DAILY PRICE RANGE 7.6 points (pretty quiet here too. Hummm)
EOD BOND YIELDS 1 YR. 0.36% -.031 10 YR. 3.76% -.053 30 YR. 4.61% -.035
Note: All closes at 4pm using continuous cash contract results
*The name Super Chart Keyline is a registered Trademark of Max Whitmore.
*** Disclaimer ***?Max Whitmore, The Keyline Report, and MUNCHIN’ On the Numbers does not endorse or suggest any of the securities which are mentioned in any way in their reports. They are provided purely for informational and research purposes. Max Whitmore, The Keyline Report, and MUNCHIN’ On the Numbers does not recommend particular securities to anyone. Max Whitmore, The Keyline Report, and MUNCHIN’ On the Numbers, as well as any source that might be used by them to initially provide information materials to them prior to the writing of their reports, shall not be liable for any errors of any description in the content, or for any actions taken by any third party based on the content therein.
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