12-15-09
If you wanted to issue bad numbers, today was a good example of how to do it. I don’t think any of the report results were expected and all were worse that last month. First, the PPI came in way above expected levels, with a number that spooked investors and may have even given Fed Chairman Bernanke a shiver or two.
The expected numbers for PPI was about +.6% and it came in at +1.8%! The core level was expected at +.3% and came in at +.8%!! And if that wasn’t bad enough the NY manufacturing numbers (called the Empire numbers), expected at 21, came in at 2.55!! The only not surprise was the Capacity utilization coming it at 71.3% on an expected 71.4% and the Industrial {Production coming in at +.8% on an expected +.7% — the lone number to be above its expectation.
Investors seemed a bit stunned at first, but recovered rather quickly, as the big guys were not here today to collectively run for the exits and send indices prices tumbling. In the end, the Dow was down by only -49 points and the S&P -6.18 points, but it still closing above the 1,100 level at 1107.93 (cash index).
One other measure I watch to help gauge the tenor of the day’s trading is the total daily range of the S&P, high to low. If it is under 10 points, I consider it a rather non-descript day. Today it was only a total of 8.9 points from daily high to daily low. So, count today a yawner, pretty much. I expect that – barring some totally unexpected major good or bad news, the rest of the days until Christmas will look a lot like today,
Now, I better amend that statement a bit, for tomorrow is the day the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets for their final drafting of a statement for the past month’s general summary, as the members of the committee see it. I don’t expect a rise in rates here – no one does (would they surprise us maybe?) –but the wording of their written consensus on the economy’s health could cause some fireworks. But, again, I don’t expect much tomorrow (2:15PM EST)
Not really much to add today, so I will sign off for now. I do hope your trading day was a profitable one. Was a so-so one for me, considering it is Christmas season, usually quite quiet. As always, I will be back here tomorrow, the Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
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SIX MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE MARKET TODAY
1. Another big bank says it will repay it TARP loans – Wells Fargo. I think that is the final one to say so.
2. U.S. Dollar gained some strength on bad economic outlook predictions for Europe.
3. Boeings 787 flew for the first time today, but 2 years late and about $2 billon over budget. Ugh.
4. Fed Chairman Bernanke expects unused production capacity to keep inflation low for some time.
5. Oral Roberts, famed pastor, died today at age 91. May God bless one who blessed so many.
6. Tiger Woods known total now 14. Oh, me. Tiger my grandson idolized you. Hope he forgets you, now.
Watched the Boeing 787 maiden flight on internet today and it was beautiful. Worth the time to watch. Bernanke may be wishing for a bit much on the inflation front, but maybe he might be right. Hummmmm. Oral Roberts was a good fried to my cousin, also a pastor, so to see him leave us is a sort of sad day for the family. And I really wish the Woods thing would go away – maybe into some deep rough or something. All in all a quite day to stimulate conversation.
DAILY CHANGES WKLY
Closes as of Tue. 12-15-09 CHANGE (cash) KEYLINE# ABV/BLW
DOW INDU. 10,452.00 -49.05 points 9,845.74 ABV +606.26
S&P 1,107.93 -6.18points 1,059.49 ABV +48.44
NASDAQ 2,201.05 -11.05 points 2078.13 ABV +122.92
30 YR BONDS 117 18/32 -0- 115 27/32 ABV + 55/32
GOLD $1,123.00 -$4.50 $1,044.50 ABV $78.50
OIL $70.69 +$1.19 $83.22 BLW $9.24
DOLLAR INDEX 76.91 +.59 79.93 BLW 3.02
COPPER $3.1410 -$.0115 $2.6369 ABV +.5041
*The name Super Chart Keyline is a registered Trademark of Max Whitmore.
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