12-17-09
The reports this morning, a FedEx glum earnings forecast, and the foreign markets action overnight pretty much tell the tale today. The Leading Indicator was above the expectation (Was +.09%/Exp +.07%), Philly Fed in higher than expected (Was 20.4/Exp. 16) Weekly Employment numbers New claims higher than expected (Was 480K/EXP.465K), and continuing claims higher (Was 5186K/Exp. 465K). All in all not really bad stuff, but FedEx disappointed investors with a week forecast for the coming quarters, and the FOMC report late yesterday reverberated round the world as investors saw signs that U.S. economy might see higher interest rates next year – remember investors are looking out 6-12 months ALWAYS.
All that meant that the dollar’s rate of return (interest return) would likely rise and so the dollar was a big buy from the moment the Japanese markets opened. That always impacts stocks as investors see higher cost of money as a profit drain and are tempted to sell stocks. Today they did. But, we will need several amore days, possibly even until after Christmas to seal see what all this means. Remember the rally is still intact, but I do expect that there will be some testing of supports when the “big Guys” get back.
And of course bonds rallied to the possibility that there might be problems next year. Most of this was “haven” buying – looking for a place to weather the possible stock storm if it does take hold. But, for now, I don’t look for bonds to break into a full fledges “Haven” rush, just some jockeying until the waters clear a bit.
Not much other economic action today. The Greek economy is still the trashier and no easy way seen at the moment to correct that one. But its impact is far less than ay Dubai’s. So, not a big factor here. And while our economy seems to be steadying, the rest of the world is still far from a calm place financially. SO, expect that a close watch will continue on Europe and Japan markets, both substantial drags to date – not that we are any big shakes at the moment either. We just seem to be finding our footing first.
We closed the day BELOW the S&P Headline a tad, not what I like to see, but Stillwell above the vital Keyline (+ about 37 points). I will be watching to see how it closes tomorrow, as the Friday close is the one that counts on the Weekly Keyline Chart.
Not a lot more to report today, so until tomorrow, as always, I do hope your trading day was a profitable one. Will be back here tomorrow, the Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
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SIX MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE MARKET TODAY
1. FedEx forecasts a slowing growth coming and investors sold it down over 5%. Ugh.
2. Nike did better than expected by analysts and investors bought it, sending it up over 2%. Good news.
3. Thought some still don’t trust them, Moody’s upgrades consumers durable sector today. Hummmm.
4. Not notice much, but P&G CEO says U.S> protectionism may slow world’ economic growth. Seriously?
5. Senate health bill talk turn very ugly and buyoffs multiply. And all we do as voters is sit there?
6. Copenhagen talks still overhang markets, but will less progress there mean higher stock prices soon?
P&G comments are the most important to me, but received little attention. Don’t hold your breath on the outcome of Copenhagen. That foggy bottom will take months to figure out. And go figure Moody’s change of attitude. Do investors trust them anymore? Think not too much. Hummm.
DAILY CHANGES WEEKLY
Closes as of ThU. 12-17-09 CHANGE (cash) KEYLINE# ABV/BLW
DOW INDU. 10,308.86 -132.26 points 9,844.44 ABV +464.42
DOW DAILY PRICE RANGE points
S&P 1,096.07 -13.11 points 1,059.39 ABV +36.68
S&P DAILY PRICE RANGE 8.7 points
30 YR BONDS 118 31/32 +1 15/32 116 27/32 ABV + 1 28/32
EOD YIELDS 90 DAY 0.74% 10 YR. 3.487% 30 YR. 4.447%
NASDAQ 2,180.05 -26.86 points 2080.32 ABV +99.29
GOLD $1,096.70 -$42.30 $924.06 ABV $172.64
OIL $74.03 -$09 $84.67 BLW $10.64
DOLLAR INDEX 77.72 +.83 79.93 BLW 2.18
COPPER $3.1200 -$0785 $2.6407 ABV +.47.93
Note: All closes at 4pm using continuous contract results
*The name Super Chart Keyline is a registered Trademark of Max Whitmore.
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