There’s much data to sift through and so many ways to cook that data. Those with an agenda, either political or financial create their own recipes in order to end up with the meal they wish served. I prefer the Old School approach, as long time readers already know. When it comes to analysis OS teaches us to apply the available data and let the analytical chips fall where they may.
BawldGuy Axiom: Analysis with a predetermined conclusion ain’t analysis — it’s fiction.
We’re fast approaching a fork in the real estate investment road, and I can see how to exploit either way our economy turns, as I’ve seen this movie before. The trick of course is knowing which direction to take — something you won’t see me claim to know on these or any other pages. I will go out on a limb however to say I see only two ways for this current sequel to go.
I’m workin’ on a post which will set out those directions, while showing potential causation and consequences for both. Also, I’ll show you what might be strategies available to incorporate into your own Purposeful Plan.
For those who use time as a tool to be respected, both of these scenarios have inherent nuggets begging to be mined. Fortunately the window, in my humble opinion, will be just wide enough to bull your way through. Things are less problematic when you’ve seen the dang movie before. 
Meanwhile, back at BawldGuyRanch, gimme a call at 619 889-7100 and find out answers to questions you never knew to ask. It can be an eye opening conversation for sure. Have a good one.
Related posts:
- Real Estate History — The Media’s Version — Preview of Coming Attractions
- Investing In San Diego? How’s That Workin’ Out?
- Gonna Keep Your RE Investment Equity/Capital in San Diego? How’s That Been Workin’ For Ya Lately?
- San Diego Real Estate Investors — How’s That Income Property Workin’ For Ya So Far?
- The Challenge Of Coming Back From Loss — Real Estate Investors Learn From Mistakes
About BawldGuy
My version of your axiom: Analysis with a predetermined conclusion ain’t analysis. It’s ENRON.
Way to tease us pretty lady
can’t wait to hear about the fork.
Cash is the best investment to be holding when you are sure you are coming to that fork in the investment road. You will be in the best position either to protect or add to your real estate investments when the choice of road is determined.
I call it “Conclusions seeking justification.”
Erion & Robert — Funny how we can all say the same thing in different ways, and we each get the same meaning. Nice.
AI — No argument. It’s always the part: “…when the choice of road is determined” that separates the different schools of thought. Some argue for being a tad early, some prefer being among the hoards, somewhat late.
You want to be the first to get there, with a good pair of binoculars.
The pros and the experienced investors are the pros and the experienced investors because they usually draw the right conclusions about which road the market will follow. Right enough, often enough, and early enough to make themselves and their clients money.
AI — True enough, but I’ve yet to meet the investor with an undamaged crystal ball. That’s why it’s a long term process. Good decisions vs not so good. Risk vs security. Growth or Cash Flow.
It never ends, does it?
It seems to me that with the lack of liquidity in real estate and high transaction costs it is better to be a little on the late side [not too late] than early. Stock investing is the opposite in my opinion. Or at least that is the lesson I have been taught lately!
It seems to me that with the lack of liquidity in real estate and high transaction costs it is better to be a little on the late side [not too late] than early.
For personal real estate definitely but investment RE makes money. It takes a heck of a lot of further price declines to recover the lost income and tax benefits that would be accumulating while waiting for a bottom and turn.
Thanks Robert, that makes sense to me now.
Like Warren Buffett, I don’t look for the exact bottom in the market. I look at the property and its cashflow and I determine if I will make a high enough rate of return from the “business” of renting the property, using very conservative assumptions. As the market goes down, I find more properties that meet the criteria. When I have investable cash and my conservative assumptions yield the target rate of return, I buy.
The only exception is a market that is deteriorating and is so unstable that I am convinced that rents and values will continue to drop like a rock. Then the wallet snaps shut and I buy treasuries and short term CD’s and wait.
I’m curious if your weekend Old School cold calling marathon did anything to clarify or refine your views on the two directions we might be headed. Climbing through small windows to mine nuggets sounds arduous and guidance in how to do this will be much appreciated by all your fellow travelers!
AI – I’ve learned never to conclude anything when it comes to calling folks ’till there’s been at least 100 ‘hellos’. Once that happens, I’ll report back. It has been informative so far though.