WIth reespect to your point,that should normally be the case which is a positive benefit for future rents. I have observed excess inventory going onto the market as rentals which may mitigate the former to some extent depending on the area. It also seems some REIT’s are moving in that direction with the construction of new apartment complexes. I’m also curious to see how the GSE’s will operate after the bailout, liquidate inventory or move it off its books in an orderly fashion. I’m poorly informed of RTC history and need to do some research to see if there’s a precedent to watch for. If anyone remembers how those events unfolded I’d appreciate a history lesson. In any case I’m trying to do the math now with a 20% rent depreciation from today’s numbers in the case it comes to that. I’m thinking of holding off on anything until January and see if the market finds any stability from the latest FED actions.

Finally, as our society divides itself into two classes instead of three (see earlier posts for this discussion) won’t there be a large contingent of folks unable to afford to buy (and now unable to get loans) that will have to rent and will want to rent decent places to raise their kids!

Invest in a leveraged illiquid asset class currently experiencing strong volatility due to a variety of factors having to do directly and indirectly with the underlying asset or un-leveraged liquid alternatives. The ones I’ve been partial to are non USD, dividend paying securities. Tax free Muni’s are another of many options. Indeed the stock market stinks but luckily we’re not in a two party system of just US stocks and RE.

I’m actively looking at RE now but what you’ve stated is exactly the sticking point. If I end up just 1% down on an RE investment for 3 consecutive years then I’m better off doing nothing and much better off with a host of other available options (No PUT option pun intended). The demographic I’m moist concerned with is household income growth and I’m not convinced that will not flatten for a few years. Just don’t see any reason to hustle.

Talk to balwd guy about jobs and migration because I know he does this analysis before suggesting investing!

My concern is less about timing the bottom and more about the future fundamentals of real estate. Last time I check Buffett was not buying income properties, but I could certainly be wrong.

Regardless of area, I am concerned that macro-fundamentals will leave real estate depreciating or stagnant for the next year or more. Job loss has be tremendous in recent month and I fear the perception of a false bottom.

Think about it this way. If I buy now and prices go down 5%, all of that is an equity loss. Additionally, if they stay down for a year or two, now I am worse off then if I had done nothing, even with the tax shelter. I am certainly one to take calculated risk, I just dont see any one giving me fundamentals. All I am hearing here is stories about people choosing to get in the market, not why they are choosing to get in..

I think if the GOP manages to act like a hard money lender, we’ll end up makin’ money on all this. The taxpayer won’t see any of the profit of course, but it could very well happen.

I’m suddenly feeling like a 700 Billion dollar patsy. Often times things are exactly as they seem.

Over housed is a complex calculation. For but one factor if only one household out of ten were to add another person that’s 4 million excess dwelling units. Too much? Not really, that’s the household density we had 10-13 years ago. Seen the percentage of homes for sale currently vacant? It just doesn’t take too much economic disconnect or demographic shift to translate into some large national numbers. Again, I’m talking climate not weather.

My mom lives in Florida. She not only owns her own “coach” (old people word for manufactured housing) but the one next door so visitors don’t cramp her style. She’s okay but she sees more of her neighbors picking either their Florida or New England homes but no longer both. More housing supply with no visible demand.