Warning Light — RE Investment Tidbits — Christmas

I’m rapidly approaching the entrance to Apathyland. It’s a fun place where the mind goes for rest and recharging. Imagine an eight year old visiting Disneyland for the first time. Every time I’m able to visit Apathyland that’s how it is for me. I’m allowed to go there once, sometimes twice a year.

Usually I’m happy as an umpire behind the plate in a playoff game when it comes to Investmentland. I love what I do. There’s nothing better than watching clients become wealthier. Talking with new clients is like vitamins to me. If I could inject numbers, I would.

Once or twice a year though, my brain starts flashing the Energy Low warning light. That means there’s at least a week of inertia to keep me going sans any real power source. A little past five today it began flashing. This year, unlike most years, I’m gonna do the right thing. Starting tomorrow — the only real estate investment stuff I’m messin’ with will be ongoing business in need of BawldGuy’s presence. Otherwise, I’m in Apathyland.

Here are some end of the year ramblings. Since I’m low on energy, give me a little leeway OK? Thanks.

Ever notice how the average TV or editorial page economist has predicted 11 out of the last 4 recessions?

Know what Texans call mashed potatoes and gravy? Dessert.

Is it possible for the DOW, this time next year, to be over 15,000? Very — or not as the case may be.

In my first 30+ years in the business, interest rates under 7% were almost mythical. A few years ago when I saw my first rate below 6% I was astounded. Yet real estate did just fine with the higher rates. Capital always finds a way.

In fact, the price run-ups during those years were fueled by 7-8.5% interest rates. It was what we had, so we made things work.

Although it keeps falling out of escrow, an acquaintance of mine owns a million dollar fourplex here in San Diego. The first income property I ever sold was a duplex for under $50,000.

Have you noticed the media have been predicting higher interest rates for the last six years? Isn’t there a statute of limitations on predictions? Of course there is, except for media. They’ll say they told us so. Which of course they did. They just don’t report when they’re wrong. Duh

Here’s a few real estate investment tidbits.

Confusing appreciation of property value with capital growth rate is common. Here’s how to think about it. You buy a property for $100 using $10 down. It goes up in value 5% the first year. People aren’t impressed with 5% growth rates for real estate. However, you’re focused on the $10 you put down, cuz that’s your money. Since the property rose in value $5 — your capital growth rate was 50%! (5 is 50% of 10) Now how impressive is a 5% appreciation rate?

I believe it’s more likely than not my Christmas shopping will be completed before it gets dark on Christmas Eve. It’ll be close though. Babydoll (daughter) has already offered a mercy shopping trip.

I thought for sure 2007 would end with the DOW at over 14,000. Though it closed up over 200 today, I’m still about 550 points short. Without a late and surprising surge, I’ll just have to deal with being a little off.

Is there anything better than Christmas morning with family? Everyone sitting around the living room, all cozy with coffee and something hot and sweet to go with it. Maybe a fire going if called for. When that moment hits you — reflect on how lucky we all are. Promise yourself to remember what’s of real value in our lives, and that it has not a thing to do with real estate.

Though I’ll be littering this space for the rest of the year with random tidbits of who knows what, today I wanted to wish all of you a Merry Christmas. I’m off to deal with that flashing warning light.

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3. San Diego Investment Property — The Year’s #1 Oxymoronic Phrase